Posted in NFL | on December 23rd, 2011
While their will always be flaws in different sports betting systems, whether it is the NFL or any other sport, one popular method that emerged several years ago is the “411 system”. Not long ago a professional gambler decided that he had finally come up with the perfect football betting system, which would take in to range a long list of variables that included everything from quarterback play, to defense, to the coaching, and even the weather. Since it was titled the 411 system, it makes sense that it was based on numbers, with a point value assigned to each of the listed variables.
In the time following the invention of the new system, its original creator was able to make thousands of dollars selling his picks, before eventually he passed away. With the original creator gone, it had seemed as though his 411 system would be lost forever, however a handful of his customers were able to figure it out and use it for themselves. The 411 system had operated at around 70-percent when it was first revealed, and that number continued strong in the 2008-09 NFL season when handicapper Allen Eastman and his group were able to post an incredible 23-8 record with it while publishing their own picks. Eastman’s version of the system went 27-13 the next season, and then in 2010-11 it went 21-14-2. While it could take a little while to figure out all of the intricacies of the system, it has remained among the most successful, and with the criteria now published, it makes sense to invest a little time to figure it out and beat the pay head bookies at their own game.
With college football sports betting set to reach a high during bowl season, it makes sense to take whatever advantages are available in order to gain an edge. Bowl game handicapping could take a lot of work for those that haven’t followed one of the conferences all year, like an SEC fan trying to figure out the worth of the Oklahoma State Cowboys depending on the strength of the Big 12, or why the Stanford Cardinal didn’t emerge from the PAC-12 undefeated. While there are many systems that are out there to aid in beating the odds laid out by the pay head bookies, but there are some simple steps that every player should always considering before laying down money.
A quick look at a 10-year stretch before the 2010 bowl games illustrates that some teams are simply due for a letdown, as 41 games saw double-digit spreads with the underdogs prevailing at a 26-14-1 rate against the spread. The fact that the underdogs were so successful when it came to covering wasn’t fluke, but simply a matter of motivation. While most of the favorites probably got caught up in the hype of the media attention, or perhaps lacked motivation after missing out on a bigger bowl, the underdogs were in a position where they had to feel like they needed to prove their merit on the big stage. As such big underdogs, the NCAA football odds basically insinuated that they didn’t have a chance to win and from that perhaps didn’t deserve to be there. When it comes to bowl betting this season, look for the teams that finished strong but aren’t getting enough credit in the spreads. Those are the teams that will come through with something to prove.
It is no secret that in the sports betting community the parlay is among the most popular methods for gambling, particularly in places with legalized, government games such as Pro Line or Sports Picks. In these situations, players can wager as little as $2 on a given parlay, with the chance to win thousands of dollars on each ticket. But while they increase the potential winnings total and make for some fun action when wagering small, large parlays are not an easy bet to win, which is funny considering how often they are called upon. But while to the inexperienced player the parlay can be an easy trap to fall in to, the experts know how to use the parlay to win big.
In situations where there are a couple of pay head teams that the player likes, and a couple of locks on a given night, the parlay can be the perfect way to eliminate “juice” from an equation and win big. For example, if two division leaders are taking on two of the worst teams in the sport, and they come in at an awful number, then the best way to turn bad odds into a big parlay win is to take those two teams and parlay them with another in order to create a situation where if the two locks come through, then that one other team creates a 50-50 chance to win big. The sportsbook reviews will argue that there is no such thing as a “lock”, and while it is true that there are never guarantees, the fact is that the best handicappers are able to consistently find them.
Every year the best in college basketball take the forefront for some of the best teams across the nation, and every year they provide their fans with a show. While that won’t change this season, the sports betting spotlight is bound to be somewhat bigger with the NBA and its players still locked out. When online wagering on the sport at the college level, it is all about the star players and their ability to come up big. With the college basketball season right around the corner, here are two names that you need to know about.
Jared Sullinger, Ohio State Buckeyes
Buckeyes’ fans will be interested to see what Sullinger has in store this season after he led Ohio State with 17.2 points per game and 10.2 rebounds, one of a handful of players in the program’s history that have averaged a double-double throughout the course of the season. The 6-9 forward is expected to have an ever better surrounding cast this year at Ohio State with a talented group that includes William Buford and Aaron Craft, and they should be the top pay head contender from the Big Ten this coming season.
Harrison Barnes, UNC Tar Heels
The Tar Heels surprised more than a few people when they rallied against the conference rival Duke Blue Devils last season in the ACC, and with an impressive returning class and one of the top recruiting groups in the country, they should be bound to take the next step. That returning class is led by Harrison Barnes, who scored 40 in North Carolina’s ACC tournament win over Clemson as a freshman, and should be even better with another year of intertops experience and growth.
For as long as there has been horse racing, there have been sports betting experts looking to capitalize on the sport with fundamental systems and handicapping angles in order to make picking winners more accurate. To this point, none of those systems or angles have ever been exact, but there are certain systems that make the likelihood of picking a winner more accurate.
One way to increase your pay head odds is by looking for a horse that came up short in its last race after a long layoff, or time away from the track. If that horse started strong and then fell short at the end, or started slow but came back to make it close at the end, then perhaps that horse needed a race to get acclimated to the environment. These types of horses are excellent bets to improve in the next race, and if it came close enough in its previous outing, then perhaps it will be ready to win the next one. While it is never easy to find a winner in a big field, another excellent way to increase your odds of winning is to pay attention to the morning lines. If a horse is highly favored and then suddenly its odds drop sharp, then perhaps that is an intertops sign that there is something else going on that could be holding the horse back that has not been revealed. Other factors including a horse that has to change jockeys and a switch in surfaces could be things that hurt a favorite’s chances of winning, so keep an eye on those factors as well. There may never be an exact system that guarantees a winner in horse racing, but by following these easy techniques it should improve the chances of winning.
Unlike in other sports across the board, the NHL has an unparalleled level of parity that makes wagering on regular season games one of the most exciting and opportunistic followings that there is. While a team can win 45 games in a season and make a run at the Stanley Cup finals, that same team can blow a road game against the team sitting in the basement of their respective conference. Thus is the nature of the game, which means that there are important factors to consider when wagering on hockey.
Beyond where they are in the standings and the superstars that they have in their lineups, consider what other notable factors will have an impact. If one team is traveling across the country on short rest then fatigue can become an obvious player, while if another team is playing in consecutive nights they could feel the effects of having to battle the night before. Games played within a specific division could result in unpredictable results, while there are certain teams that always seem to struggle against others. The advantage that NHL pay head handicappers have is the ability to study the intricacies of a game and make wise decisions based on the lines that are laid by books that usually create their lines based on obvious data such as wins and losses. That leaves the door open for players to make a big score if they can find the loopholes in the system, and makes the NHL an intriguing sports betting option.
You may be fishing for ways to make your sports betting account last as the football season is well underway, the baseball playoffs are almost here and hockey will be starting up soon (we’re still not betting on any NBA basketball betting played, although the college game will be fast and furious). Here are a couple of ways to wager your money throughout the season.
Ride It Out
One of the best ways to manage your money is to make the right picks and then get on a hot streak. When you’re on the streak, bet more in order to win more on your earnings, but of course this is difficult to do as you never know when a streak is going to begin or end. You don’t have to go crazy on your bets, just increase your wagers little by little. This is even a system that could help those who play poker sites online, as well as online casino players.
Half It Up
You can also take a bigger risk and start wagering half of your original bet, but you have to decide from the beginning, what is the number of wins that will make me up the ante? Most experts suggest two or three wins, but you have to do what you feel comfortable doing. Both of these systems are called positive progressive systems, and it’s the only way you should bet as you only increase your wagers when you’re winning, and that can be a boost to your online betting account.
Even those who play shark fishing games will likely dabble in some sports betting this fall, especially when it comes to the NFL as football is easily the most popular play in online sportsbooks. Here are a few tips to get you through the season, one that is unique as we had to deal with a lockout and a shortened training camp. However, the basic principles remain the same.
Learn The Rosters
This seems so simple, but especially in a short offseason where many big names switched jerseys or aren’t playing at all. Take, for example, Carson Palmer. If you went into the season thinking he was still a Cincinnati Bengal, well…he technically is, but due to a dispute with the owner, he isn’t playing and the Bengals have a rookie quarterback. Again, it seems simple, but trust us, do you homework this year.
Location
A lot of teams build around their home stadium, and the best example of this right now is Atlanta, a dome team who is picking up offensive weapons as quickly as they can, knowing they play half of their games at home (where they were 8-0 last year in the regular season). Where a game is played will not only affect an outcome, but the total points as well. Basically, it affects all NFL betting lines.
The Injury Report
This is the most important piece of information you’ll read before making your sports betting picks, and you have to be diligent about it, right up to kickoff as last-minute injuries have ruined many a ticket (as well as fantasy football picks). Make sure you know of any possible ailments before heading to your sports betting book.
With NFL betting lines for the regular season coming up, sports betting players are going to find themselves running across the concept of the point spread, which is also used in basketball. Here is a quick tutorial in how to bet on point spreads.
A point spread is when a sportsbook feels that a team is going to beat their opposition by a certain amount of points. That team is referred to as the favorite, while the other team is called the underdog. For example, a line for the first week of the NFL regular season is as follows:
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2.5) or Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Baltimore (the first example is used more often)
The line will tell you that the Steelers are going to Baltimore, and the Ravens are a 2.5-point favorite. If you are going to bet on the Ravens to win on the point spread, they have to win by at least three points. If you want to wager on the Steelers’ point spread, you can win two ways: one, if the Steelers win the game outright, or two, if the Ravens manage to win by two or fewer points.
The concept of the point spread is just another way for sports betting players to get their money’s worth, but be careful because that last-second field goal may end up costing you more than you think. Make sure you understand point spreads fully before doing any online betting.
It’s almost time to bet football online as the NFL season is on the horizon, along with college football and sports betting players are always looking for ways to improve their chances. There are no quick ways to learn how to boost your wagering chances (and at the same time, pad your wagering account), but there are a few easy ways to give yourself a positive chance to keep your head above water.
Making positive progressions is the way to ensure that you stay out of the red, and a positive progression-based system is when you essentially bet more when you are winning and less when you are losing. Now, this can be difficult because the tendency when you’re hot is to keep betting and betting, but at the same time, that is how you can get on a cold streak quickly and that is called a negative progression system. There are a couple of different positive progression systems that are popular, which are the Paroli Betting system (which works best in the midst of winning streaks, which is difficult to tell because you don’t know if you’re in a streak until it is over) and the One Half Up system (you don’t raise your wager until you win two events in a row, at least).
Basically, the idea of these systems concerns betting management and being smart with your money, which goes by the wayside for a lot of players. Give these systems a try and see how you fare in your sports betting online picks.